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Silver is a statistician, who developed a forecasting tool for predicting baseball players development, and he gained fame for correctly predicting the 2008 and 2012 elections. Attached is his bracket prediction with Illinois taking CU by a razor thin 50.4%, the closest of any first round match. Always likeCU teams to be the underdog.
Need help with your N.C.A.A. bracket? Nate Silver is estimating each team’s chance of advancing to any given stage of the N.C.A.A. bracket. View his estimates as a table and read his analysis.
Interesting, but don't you mean a "razor hair"?
No. Razor thin means as thin as a razor, very thin. Razor hair? Do you mean a razor hair cut? Unfortunatley the newspapers are written at a 4th grade level here on the frontier of Arizona which set you back.
AZ was messing with you. "Razor hair" is a Hawkism that DH used to describe what separated Cody and Tyler in their annual QB competition iirc.
That is a joke, right? Nobody else got it right except him?
I believe he means the electoral college.
Nah Nikk. Silver correctly predicted the presidential candidate winner in 49 states and all 35 senate races in 2008, and all 50 states and 31 out of 33 senate elections in 2012. The guy has the best forecasting record in politics. It will be interesting to see how he does with so many more variables in the tournament.
His background is in saber stuff in baseball (before his political forecasts) but I think his methodology is pretty terrible for this. Anyway, people routinely misunderstand his predictions. He doesn't say team x or person x will win, he simply assigns percentages based on his models. The real way to say whether his picks suck or not is to compare them to prediction markets where people bet actual money. My guess is he beats the prediction markets in political stuff (they're much less efficient, and sometimes manipulated when low in liquidity) and would get crushed betting his model in basketball.
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